Author: John Stewart

Shaping 2018

The essence of successful campaigning is to shape the future.  There will be a number of opportunities for aviation campaigners to do that in 2018.  It will be the year when crucial decisions will be made and pivotal policy positions set in train.

The most headline-making decision will be on a third runway at Heathrow.  Already it is the Government’s preferred option.  If Parliament backs it in a vote expected by the summer, it will become official Government policy.  The next step will be for Heathrow to begin the 2 – 3 year process of drawing up and consulting on the detailed plans before presenting them to a local planning inquiry for approval.

HACAN has long campaigned against a third runway and will continue to do so.  Our principle objection is this:  we feel that an extra 700 planes a day will only worsen the noise climate (despite any welcome improvements in aircraft technology and better operational procedures that may be on the way).  It will be particularly hard on areas – such as parts of Hammersmith, Chiswick, Brentford and Ealing – which have never had planes before.  Lives will be turned upside down and, for some people, it will never go back to the pre-plane days.  Already, according to the European Commission, 28% of people impacted by aircraft noise across Europe live under the Heathrow flight paths.  We feel that, whatever economic benefits a third runway may bring, the noise disbenefits are simply too great.  

While the long-awaited decision on the third runway will capture the headlines, it important that, as campaigners, we don’t let it overshadow our chance to shape other key decisions that will be made in 2018.

On January 17^th, Heathrow will launch two public consultations to run in parallel over a 10 week period.  One will concern the very local impacts of a third runway; the other will be about the reorganisation of its flight paths.

While HACAN continues to oppose a third runway, if it does happen, we want the best possible deal for our members who will the people who will be living with the impact of the new runway.  We are determined to try to shape that deal.  We would of course prefer not to be in a position of trying to shape a deal before a final decision has been taken but that it the reality of where things are and it would be a dereliction of our duty to our members if we didn’t use every opportunity to get the best deal possible.

So, during the consultation, we will be putting forward and campaigning for tough conditions to be embedded in any recommendation the Government may put before Parliament for a third runway.

The six key HACAN conditions would want to see:

• A tougher night flight regime than the 6½ hour night currently on offer 

• Guaranteed respite for all communities within 25 miles of Heathrow

• A noise envelope that sets firm limits on noise and flight numbers 

• World class compensation

• A Community Engagement Board

• A fourth runway to be ruled out

The conditions should be become part of primary legislation agreed by Parliament in order to provide the firmest guarantee possible that there will be no going back on them. 

We will also seek to shape Heathrow’s flight paths consultation.  HACAN’s well-known position is that PBN could work for communities if the precision technology is used to introduce a number of routes which are then rotated to provide predicable periods of respite.  It could be a positive benefit for communities from Lewisham to Reading who at present are being tormented by all-day flying.  Whatever system is finally introduced, it needs to be rooted in the principles of fairness and equity.

The other piece of emerging legislation which will be developed in 2018 will be the new Aviation White Paper being put together by the Department for Transport.  It is likely to enshrine in legislation some of the positives which were outlined in the Government’s Airspace Policy, published towards the end of 2017: more realistic metrics for measuring noise annoyance; the recognition of the importance of respite; the establishment of an Independent Noise Authority (expected to happen this April).  These are measures HACAN campaigned hard for over many years.  We will be joining other organisations like the Airports Community Forum to press for tough measures to cut noise and for airport communities to have a stronger voice in decision-making to be included in the White Paper.

But the consultation last year on the vision behind the White Paper was based on a huge predicted growth in passenger numbers over the coming decades.  As indicated above, aviation growth can bring benefits.  But future growth, unless regulated in some way, could overwhelm us.  When the 90% or so of the world’s population who have never flown start to do so, some controls will probably become inevitable.  A fair fiscal system would be the most effective form of control.  It needs to be a graduated system where those who fly most frequently – and those who travel the greatest distance – pay the most.  Air Passenger Duty, which raises £3.2 billion a year for the Exchequer, includes a distance element.  The much-discussed Frequent Flyers Levy – http://afreeride.org/ – bases the tax paid on the number of trips made in a year.

Finally – and as important as anything else for people living with the noise right now – in 2018 we will press for immediate improvements to the current noise climate around Heathrow.  Early in the New Year we will publish a report which will suggest that, while most flight paths have not changed in recent years, there has been more concentration of aircraft both of landing and take-off.  This needn’t wait until new flight paths are in place to get sorted.  We will suggest it is something with air traffic control could deal with in the short-term.

We will continue to defend the runway alternation enjoyed by many people in West London.  And back the trials of slightly steeper approaches being carried out by Heathrow.  And back the research being carried out into the impact of steeper departures.  We will continue to play an active role in bodies such as Heathrow’s Community Noise Forum and the Community Engagement Board (which will incorporate the Heathrow Consultative Committee). 

Strategy 

2018 could turn out to be a significant year for communities impacted by Heathrow.  It is highly likely a decision on a third runway will be made. But it will also be the year when Heathrow will begin the biggest change to its flight paths since it opened in 1946.

The airspace changes are being driven by the introduction at airports across the world of new technology called Performance Based Navigation (PBN).  In essence, it means that aircraft will be guided more precisely as they land and take-off.  The norm will be flight paths along a few, predicable, concentrated routes.  This will allow more aircraft to use an airport, cut fuel costs for airlines, reduce CO2 emissions from each aircraft, improve the resilience of airports and probably cut the number of air traffic controllers required.

Performance Based Navigation is not, in my view, an optional process which any one airport can opt out of or any one community can successfully challenge. Hundreds of airports across the globe have already introduced it.  It has the backing of governments.  The aviation industry has spent huge sums of money on it.  In Europe the industry has invested 2.5 billion euros in PBN on which it expects to get a return of 4.4 billion euros.  And in America, it is estimated PBN improvements have accrued $1.6 billion of benefits since 2010 and it is expected that by 2030, the total benefits of PBN improvements will be $160.6 billion, at a cost of $35.8 billion to the Federal Aviation Administration and the aviation industry.

Opposing PBN is not a realistic option.  Our challenge as campaign groups is to shape it so it works for our communities.  Heathrow’s consultation on the design principles to inform its new flight paths, starting on 17^th January, gives us an early opportunity to start to do so.  

Understandably, the prospect of changes to our air space generates a range of deep emotions.  Communities not currently overflown fear they might be.  People in the parts of West London which get a half day’s break from the noise are afraid it might be lost or modified.  People under take-off routes, which have become a lot more concentrated over the decade, fear more of the same.  But others, such as many communities in South East London or in the Reading area, plagued at present by random all-day flying, would welcome fixed flight paths which would give them some relief from the constant noise. 

Fixed flights paths of course mean concentration.  And the relentlessness of concentrated flying – the staple diet of PBN – causes real fear.  The new technology will concentrate flight paths but – and here is the potential community benefit – its accuracy should also allow for multiple concentrated flight paths to be created.  If these flight paths were to be rotated, it opens up the possibility of meaningful periods of respite for impacted communities.  (And, I suspect, further from the airport – over 20 miles or so – some dispersal).  Although Heathrow Airport is committed to introducing respite where possible, it will not be an easy process, particularly if there are voices within the industry which might resist changes if they are seen as too difficult or too inconvenient.  Our task will be to challenge that attitude and shape the new PBN world so that it works for communities as well as the industry.

It will be a big task.  We are most likely to succeed the more united we are.  And we are most likely to achieve that unity and success if our campaign is firmly rooted in the principle of fairness and equity.  It’s a principle we doubtless all sign up to in theory but, in practice, we are keeping a watchful eye – perhaps even an NIMBY eye – as to what the flight path changes may mean for our street!  This is wholly understandable as a flight path overhead can be a brutal assault on our senses, particularly if it is over a new area.  But, unless a community campaign to shape PBN and future airspace is based on principle – the principle of fairness and equity – it will simply set one community against another.  To get this right will be a key challenge for local communities in 2018. 

The other big issue of the year will of course be the third runway.  Parliament is expected to vote on it before the summer.  It will be a surprise if Theresa May does not recommend the go-ahead and gets the backing of most Conservative MPs.  The Labour Party’s position is still evolving.  There has been a lot of support for a third runway amongst backbench Labour MPs and some of that support will remain solid. But the indications are that the majority of Labour MPs will go along with the position adopted by the Shadow Cabinet.  

Labour has set four tests which it says any new runway anywhere must meet if they are to back it.  The Shadow Cabinet has still to say whether it believes a third runway at Heathrow does so.  If Labour officially comes out against a third runway, the arithmetic looks more interesting but it would still need the bulk of Labour MPs to join up with the Liberal Democrats and the Conservative rebels to have any chance of defeating the Government which would have the backing of the Ulster Unionists and the SNP.     

If Parliament backs a third runway, it becomes official Government policy.  Heathrow will then start the process of drawing up and consulting on the more detailed plans.

HACAN has had a long record of opposing a new runway because of its potential impacts on the community.  That remains our position but later this month we will be publishing a list of six tough conditions which we think the Government should insist on if a third runway goes ahead.

Most of our members are clear:  they don’t want a third runway but, if it does go ahead, they want HACAN to fight for the best deal for communities.  We will start that process in 2018.

So, 2018 will be a significant year but, for most of our members, it will also be much of the same.  They are living with the noise, with the night flights which wake them up and, in many cases, with all-day flying.  For them, dealing with these bread-and-butter issues is as important as the longer term prospect of a third runway or new flight paths.  Our pledge to them:  in 2018 won’t let the high-profile issues of new runways and flight paths distract us from lobbying for immediate improvements to the current situation. 

It is not often you get to design your own flight path.  But that could happen over the next couple of years at Heathrow.  We won’t get to draw precise line on maps.  So, forget about putting it over the home of your worst enemy!  But Heathrow will be consulting about the principles on which flight paths should be based.

It is prompted by what will be the biggest change in flight paths since the airport opened in 1946.  This will happen whether Heathrow remains a two runway airport or whether a third runway is built.

It is driven by new technology which allows aircraft to be guided more precisely.  It will allow for more efficient use of airspace, enable airlines to cut costs and save fuel, reduce CO2 emissions, improve the resilience of airports (important at somewhere like Heathrow) and allow air traffic control to run a slicker operation using fewer staff.

Heathrow has no alternative but to introduce the new technology known as Precision-Based Navigation (PBN).  Aircraft and air traffic control systems across the world are being adapted and modernized to enable it to become the standard operating practice.

Heathrow’s challenge is to find ways to ensure it operates in the interest of local community as well as the aviation industry. It has watched other airports in the UK and America introduce it with almost uniformly disastrous consequences for the local communities.  It knows, given the huge number of people impacted by Heathrow, it cannot afford to get it wrong.

The big mistake most other airports made was to use the precision technology to concentrate their routes so that the communities under those narrow bands were subject to all-day flying without a break.  Noise ghettos were created and residents rebelled.  Lawsuits are being filed in America.  Complaints increased four-fold at London City. Communities are up in arms at Luton, Stansted and Gatwick (where vectoring changes that concentrated some routes took place).

Watching this unfolding disaster, Heathrow has decided to involve residents at an early stage. In two or three months time, Heathrow will consult the public on the design principles that should inform its new flight paths – for example, the importance people put on periods of respite if routes become concentrated.

Heathrow says it will be starting from ‘a blank piece of paper’.  The prospect of flight path changes can be frightening but many of our HACAN members and supporters see it as an opportunity to get rid of the all-day flights which has blighted their lives for decades.  They favour the introduction of multiple flight paths, rotated, to give them predicable periods of relief from the noise.  And see this as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make this happen.

There are three concerns emerging amongst communities.  One is the sheer dread of concentration without a break. But that is highly unlikely to happen at Heathrow as the airport has bought into the concept of respite and, indeed, will be publishing a ground-breaking report into what meaningful respite might look like later this summer.

The second big concern comes from the areas in West London, relatively close to the airport, which already enjoy predicable flight paths and a half day’s break from the noise when planes landing over London switch runways at 3pm.  Many people have built their lives around this long-established pattern and fear the consequences should it be changed.

The third worry is about take off flight paths.  At present there are Noise Preferential Routes (three kilometres wide) which departing aircraft must use until they reach 4,000ft. In recent years aircraft have become much more concentrated down the centre-line of the NPRs.  This has caused real problems for the communities right underneath them.  Looking forward, the questions being asked are whether the new technology can allow for the routes to be varied within the NPRs and/or whether new NPRs would need to be introduced.  The latter would almost certainly involve planes flying over new areas which brings its own issues.

Precision-Based Navigation that does not involve pure concentration is more challenging for departures than arrivals.  In my view, the positive thing is that Heathrow is involving local communities at the earliest possible stage.

In the second half of 2018 Heathrow will have a second consultation.  This will be on noise envelopes it has drawn up based on the design principles it will consult on this year.  The noise envelopes will outline the areas where the flight paths will go rather than the details of the flight paths themselves. 

The detailed flight paths are not expected to emerge until a couple of years later.  They will obviously be dependent on whether Heathrow by then knows it can plan for a third runway.  But, even if a third runway does not happen, Heathrow will be starting from a blank piece of paper to residents the flight paths at a two-runway airport.  The prospect may generate concern or hope (maybe dependent on where you live) but the changes, driven by new technology world-wide, will happen.  They are the biggest changes for 50 years and may well last another half-century.  Ours in the generation which can shape these changes.  It is both a daunting and exciting prospect.