A note to the man ‘who got Brexit done’: delay a 3rd runway decision and many communities will hurt

A third runway at Heathrow could still be a decade away.  That’s even if it gets the final green light from the Secretary of State for Transport in 2021 following the public inquiry which is expected to start later this year.  It had been scheduled to open in 2026 but now it could be 2029.  That’s because the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) announced shortly before Chistmas that it had refused Heathrow permission to spend the money it wanted on a third runway before final permission has been granted.

As I a long-time opponent of a third runway I should be delighted.  But, although I know delay is a tried and tested – and sometimes successful – tactic used to a stop major development, I’m uneasy about the prospect of a delay.  Too much is hold until the runway is either built or abandoned.  And not just for the obvious players:  Heathrow as well as many businesses and some other airports who would plan differently if a third runway was dropped; but also for many communities, including many of the people who HACAN represents.

It is not unlike Brexit.  Except for committed remainers, there seems to be general relief that a clear decision on Brexit will now be taken.  The uncertainty was hurting.

A lot of residents are hurting waiting for some certainty around a third runway.  A couple of weekends ago I visited some of our members who live not far from Brixton in South London.  They’ve had all-day flying for years.  During my visit the noise was constant.  

They suspect nothing will change in the short-term because the aviation industry is focused on plans for a third runway, designing its flight paths and a new night flight regime on the basis it will happen.  For them, those changes may be potentially beneficial:  a longer night period without planes and an end to all-day flying as multiple routes are introduced in order to provide them with respite they’ve been wanting for years.  If a runway is to be given permission, they would prefer it – and the changes it would usher in – to open in 2026 rather than 2029.

Big decisions hang on the timing.  One woman told me she could not face another decade of unremmiting noise and would need to move away whereas five or six years might just be about bearable.

They need to know what will happen to them if the third runway is dropped.  They know that new flight paths, driven by new satellite-based technology, will come in whether or not as third runway will be built.  But all the current focus is on how to coordinate the flight paths of a 3-runway Heathrow with the new flight paths being introduced at the other airports in London and the South East.  A huge undertaking which would probably need to start from scratch if Heathrow remained a 2-runway airport.  

On Friday I received two emails, one from a woman in Lewisham, the other from a couple in Chiswick wanting to move but not knowing where to go because of the continuing uncertainty about where new flight paths will be and when they will be introduced.  They feel in limbo.

This uncertainty is perhaps most stark for those whose homes are threatened by the runway.  Some don’t want to move; others are prepared to take the offer on the table; but most want some certainty so they can plan their future.

If a third runway means you will be under a flight path for the first time, or if a third runway will mean more planes over your home, or if you are a climate campainger, delay is important.  

But we need to recognise many communities want an early decision – one way or another.  Their lives are on hold – and often dominated by unremitting noise which nobody feels they can do anything about until a decision is made.  

It is not always easy for campaigners to understand that it is not just many in business and the aviation industry who want a clear decision on a third runway soon.  It is also many local communities.

Will Boris bulldoze the Heathrow third runway?

Boris once rang me up.  It was a bit incongruous really.  Here was I standing on the deserted platform of  Isleworth rail station in West London, with the Mayor of London on my mobile.  He was congratulating me on my work in campaigning against a third runway and urging me to stand firm.

I am certain Boris doesn’t like the third runway.  He’s probably not too keen on a second runway at Gatwick either.  And he opposed the last expansion plans at London City Airport.  His dream remains Boris Island, the off-shore Estuary Airport, or something similar: a big new airport – away from a populated area – that can compete on the world stage. 

There will be intense pressure from all sides on Boris, now that he is Prime Minister, over the third runway.  Which way will he jump?

I don’t think we will know the answer to that for some time.  Brexit is his priority.  His current cabinet is there to deliver Brexit.  It includes strong supporters of a third runway like transport secretary Grant Schapps as well as committed opponents like environment secretary Theresa Villiers.

Boris has been very careful to keep his options open.  Last week Parliament he gave an interesting answer to the Green MP Caroline Lucas when she asked about 3rd runway:  “The bulldozers are some way off but I’m following with lively interest the court cases because I share her concerns about air quality and about pollution.”  No commitment to stop it or build it.

I suspect, though, that never before have so many key opponents of a third runway had the ear of a Prime Minister:

Sir Edward Lister, his chief of staff, for 19 years the leader of Wandsworth Council, a consistent critic of a third runway

Theresa Villiers, his Secretary of State for the Environment, the person who when shadow Transport Secretary in the late 1990s, played a key role in persuading David Cameron to come out against the third runway

Zac Goldsmith, appointed to Boris’s Government to work on environment and animal welfare issues across two Government departments, DEFRA and Dfid, famously resigned his seat and fought a by-election on the issue of a third runway

Daniel Moylan, Boris’s aviation adviser when he was London Mayor and who is still close to Boris and, as an ardent Bexiteer, is expected to given a role in the Brexit negotiations 

Ray Puddifoot, the long-time leader of Hillingdon Council, the borough which includes Boris’s own Uxbridge constituency, is an implacable opponent of a third runway.  Hillingdon has put a huge amount of money into fighting it: in supporting residents and the wider opposition movements and in helping to fund legal challenges.  Indeed, it is thought that Puddifoot’s strategy has been to delay the new runway long enough in the hope Boris would one day become Prime Minister.

If Boris was minded to drop a third runway when would be do it?  My view is that he is likely to let the current consultation and probably next year’s Public Inquiry run their course.  In early 2021 the Government will need to make the final decision on the third runway.  This would be Boris’s opportunity to drop it if he was so minded.  If he did so before the proposal for the new runway had gone through the formal planning procedures, the Government would almost certainly need to find billions of pounds to compensate Heathrow for the work it has done.

Zac Goldsmith would not stay in a Government which gave a new runway the go-ahead and Ray Puddifoot and others would feel badly let down.

Could Boris sell a no third runway strategy to his cabinet and party? Perhaps only if he offered them the realistic prospect of a world-class airport elsewhere.  Business would want the same.  Or else this would be seen as the biggest ‘F… Business’ of all time.  

Heathrow would be devastated.  And rightly so.  Although I have spent many years opposing a third runway, I recognise Heathrow has put a lot of time and money into trying to mitigate and manage its impacts in a way few airports in the world have ever done.

But perhaps Heathrow and its business backers will persuade Boris to overcome his own instincts and the beliefs of some of his closest colleagues and permit the expansion.  

What we do know is that the third runway is currently in that strangest of places:  in planning terms it is closer than ever before; but in power is a Prime Minister who threatens it more than any of his predecessors.     

John Stewart 

John Stewart chairs HACAN which gives a voice to residents under the Heathrow flight paths