Campaign group HACAN, which opposes expansion at Heathrow, has claimed that the Mori Poll released by Heathrow Airport today is what it seems. Heathrow claims the poll shows that 60% of MPs support at third runway but HACAN argues that claim is misleading as only 143 MPs out of 650 were asked. Of those that were polled, 84 backed 3rd runway.
Read the the full article in the Daily Telegraph: fw.to/sUZOcwE
HACAN chair John Stewart said, “Very little can be read into this poll because the numbers questioned were so low. 84 MPs out of a total of 650 is far from a groundswell of support for a third runway. It certainly is not evidence, as Heathrow is claiming, that expansion is becoming more politically deliverable.
ENDS
For further information: John Stewart on 0207 737 6641 or 07957385650
Today, HACAN proudly launches Third Runway News, a new publication providing residents of west London, east Berkshire and north Surrey with the facts about what an expanded Heathrow Airport would mean for them.
HACAN is a residents-led campaign and indeed this very newspaper was designed by one of our local members, not a hugely expensive professional design company. HACAN relies on donations and membership rates to fund our activities. Unlike some other campaign organisations, we are not bankrolled by Heathrow Airport!
Whether it is noise pollution, air pollution or increased traffic, there are plenty of reasons why a third runway should never be allowed to take off. This newspaper explains why.
Find your village or town in the yellow banner running across the top of each page and spread the word around your neighbourhood today!
For much more information on our campaign and activities, email us on info@hacan.org.uk
With the news that an official statement will be made tomorrow (2nd September) that the Airports Commission has ruled out an Estuary Airport, HACAN, which opposes a third runway at Heathrow, made the following statement:
HACAN chair John Stewart said: “I don’t expect that this will mean that Boris Johnson or his supporters will give up on the idea of a brand new airport. The idea of an island airport is likely to be floating around for some time yet. Johnson remains an implacable opponent of a third runway at Heathrow and has reservations about the value of a second runway at Gatwick.”
Stewart added: “This statement makes it clear that Davies sees it as a choice between Heathrow and Gatwick. Whether a future Government will see it that way is another matter altogether.”
On the face of it, it may seem odd to cite the economy as a reason why Heathrow does not need a third runway. After all, many in business back a third runway. And it is the main reason Heathrow Airport gives for promoting one.
Let’s acknowledge up front that a 3rd runway would bring economic benefits. And that it would improve connections for business to key markets in the world’s emerging economies – places like China, India and Brazil.
But all that is very different to saying that a 3rd runway is essential to London’s economy. There is clear evidence it is not.
Only today, the influential Forbes international survey named London as the top city in the world for business – without a third runway. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-tops-forbes-list-of-the-worlds-most-influential-cities-in-2014-9676264.html It is worth reading what, Joel Kotkin, the author of the Forbes report wrote: “London is not only the historic capital of the English language, which contributes to its status as a powerful media hub and major advertising centre, but it’s also the birthplace of the cultural, legal and business practices that define global capitalism. The city has upward of 3,000 tech startups, as well as Google’s largest office outside Silicon Valley. Compared to New York, it is also time-zone advantaged for doing business in Asia, and has the second best global air connections of any city after Dubai, with non-stop flights at least three times a week to 89 per cent of global cities outside of its home region of Europe.”
The Forbes survey gives added weight to what a number of commentators have been saying for some time. To meet current growth projections London and the South East may need a new runway by 2030 but it need not be at Heathrow.
The main reason the London economy doesn’t depend on Heathrow expanding is this: more passengers (business people and tourists) terminate in London than in any other cit yin the world.On the whole, they do not mind which London airport they use.
Heathrow must be looked at in the context of all London’s airports. London has six airports and seven runways. London has more runways than any of its European rivals, except Paris: Paris is served by 3 airports and 8 runways; Amsterdam by 1 airport and 6 runways; Frankfurt by 2 airports and 5 runways; and Madrid by 1 airport and 4 runways.
As the Forbes survey so clearly indicated, London is the hub. The vitality of London is what draws business people and tourists in world-beating numbers. Because London is the magnet, Heathrow does not need to expand as a hub in order to enable more transfer passengers to provide sufficient numbers of people to fill flights to destinations across the world that would not otherwise be commercially viable.
If airport capacity is provided – at whatever airport – people will flock to the capital in even larger numbers, drawn by the magnetic pull of London. A third runway at Heathrow may boost the coffers of Heathrow Airport’s foreign owners. It is not, though, essential for the health of London economy.
Populus, Heathrow’s favourite pollster, are in trouble. Their questionable methods have been exposed in a poll they did for the fracking industry. Thie poll published on Monday, carried out for UK Onshore Oil and Gas, was described by a polling expert as ‘one of the most misleading poll findings I’ve ever seen’.
And today the pressured on Populus has increased with the publication of a Government-funded survey which shows markedly different results to the Populus poll. The Government survey found that only 25% of people supported fracking compared to the Populus poll which claimed 57% support.
The headline in today’s Times gets to the heart of it: Public back fracking . . . depending on how you ask the question http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/environment/article4174476.ece … Ben Webster, the Times environment editor, puts it like this in his article: “The questions about fracking in the two surveys were posed in very different ways. The survey commissioned by UK Onshore Oil and Gas (UKOOG) asked several questions about Britain’s need for investment and greater energy security before the key question on fracking. The question included a long preamble explaining the “tiny fractures” involved and how shale gas could “heat the UK’s homes for over 100 years”. The energy department survey included a brief explanation of fracking as “a process of pumping water at high pressure into shale”,then asked people to state their level of support for it”.
Polling expert Leo Barasi wrote in Noise of the Crowdhttp://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/this-fracking-poll-finding-is-one-of-the-least-convincing-ive-ever-seen/ about the Populus poll: “Short of faking results or fiddling the weights or sample (which this poll doesn’t), there are two ways to get a poll to give the answers you want. You can ask a series of leading questions that get respondents thinking the way you want them to, then ask the question you’re really interested in. Or you can word the questions so respondents only see half the argument. This poll does both”.
Barasi says: “This isn’t an attempt to find out what the public think about fracking. It’s message testing. That’s what political candidates or businesses do before launching a campaign. They fire a load of messages at respondents to see how much support they could gain in a theoretical world where only their view is heard, and which arguments are most effective. It’s a useful technique for finding out how people might respond to your arguments. But it’s not supposed to represent what people actually think now”.
The criticism of Populus has important implications for Heathrow. The airport has consistent commissioned polls from Populus in an attempt to show support for a third runway is growing.
In May 2014 Heathrow Airport claimed, on the basis of a Populus poll, that there was more support now for a 3rd runway than when it was proposed by the last Labour Government. The poll claimed to show 48% were in favour of a third runway while 34% opposed.
In an uncanny parallel with the fracking results, these Populus results were flatly contradicted by referenda and surveys carried out by Hillingdon, Richmond and Hounslow local authorities which found around 72% of residents opposed a 3rd runway: http://www.richmond.gov.uk/100000_say_no_to_heathrow_expansion
All the polls done by Populus for Heathrow must now be regarded with suspicion. In December last year Heathrow claimed “people in West London are more likely to vote for their MP if they support Heathrow expansion than if they oppose a third runway according to new research from independent polling company Populus”.
Heathrow need now to publish not just the questions Populus are asking people but also the ‘spiel’ leading up to the questions. Unless they can convince us all that they are not leading people to their chosen answer, their results can only be regarded as fiction rather than fact…..to be filed alongside this entertaining incident from Yes Ministerhttp://youtu.be/G0ZZJXw4MTA
HACAN has called on HeathrowAirport to come clean about its surveys carried out by its favourite pollster Populus following the revelations this week about the methods Populus used in a recent survey on fracking.The fracking poll published on Monday, carried out for UK Onshore Oil and Gas (UKOOG), was described by a polling expert as ‘one of the most misleading poll findings I’ve ever seen’.And today it has been revealed that the UKOOG findings have been flatly contradicted by a Government survey found which only 25% of people supported fracking compared to the Populus poll which claimed 57% support. Heathrow has relied on Populus polls, conducted over the phone, to back its claims there is growing support for a third runway at the airport. Heathrow claimed, on the basis of a Populus poll, that there was more support now for a 3rd runway than when it was proposed by the last Labour Government. The poll claimed to show 48% were in favour of a third runway while 34% opposed results which were flatly contradicted by referenda and surveys carried out by Hillingdon, Richmond and Hounslow local authorities which found around 72% of residents opposed a 3rd runway.
HACAN, the campaign group opposed to expansion at Heathrow, has called on Heathrow Airport to come clean about its surveys carried out by its favourite pollster Populus following the revelations this week about the methods Populus used in a recent survey on fracking (1). The fracking poll published on Monday, carried out for UK Onshore Oil and Gas (UKOOG), was described by a polling expert as ‘one of the most misleading poll findings I’ve ever seen’ (2). And today it has been revealed that the UKOOG findings have been flatly contradicted by a Government survey found which only 25% of people supported fracking compared to the Populus poll which claimed 57% support (3).
Heathrow has relied on Populus polls, conducted over the phone, to back its claims there is growing support for a third runway at the airport. Heathrow claimed, on the basis of a Populus poll, that there was more support now for a 3rd runway than when it was proposed by the last Labour Government. The poll claimed to show 48% were in favour of a third runway while 34% opposed (3), results which were flatly contradicted by referenda and surveys carried out by Hillingdon, Richmond and Hounslow local authorities which found around 72% of residents opposed a 3rd runway (4).
In December last year Heathrow claimed “people in West London are more likely to vote for their MP if they support Heathrow expansion than if they oppose a third runway according to new research from independent polling company Populus” (5) in contradiction to what MPs day they are hearing on the doorstep and reading in their mail.
Experts are claiming that Populus are asking questions in a way that is guaranteed to get the answers their paymasters want.
HACAN chair John Stewart said, “Heathrow need to come clean about these Populus surveys. It looks as if their favourite pollster has been discredited. Heathrow should now to publish not just the questions Populus are asking people but also the ‘spiel’ leading up to the questions. Unless they can convince us all that they are not leading people to their chosen answer, their results can only be regarded as fiction rather than fact…..to be filed alongside this entertaining incident from Yes Ministerhttp://youtu.be/G0ZZJXw4MTA.”
Heathrow’s busiest ever month together with the recent heat-wave have resulted in a record number of aircraft noise complaints received by campaign group HACAN . Heathrow’s figures for July, just released, show that 6.97 million passengers used the airport during the month (1).
HACAN chair John Stewart said, “Open windows at night coupled with more outdoor activities has meant that more than hundreds of thousands people in West London and beyond are having to put up with what at times seems like constant aircraft noise.”
He added, “It puts into perspective Heathrow’s current consultation on compensation – www.heathrow.com/publicconsultation – if a third runway is ever built. You simply can’t compensate people for the disturbance of planes thundering over as they sit in their gardens trying to enjoy the summer sunshine. And of course, there is increasing evidence that too much noise is as bad for your health as too much sunshine.”
Stewart said, “Just imagine how much worse the noise could be with a 3rd runway and at least 250,000 more flights each year using Heathrow”.
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Notes for editors:
(1). Heathrow records busiest month ever (6.97m pass., +0.5%), busiest day, & cargo up 7.8%. July results: http://bit.ly/1mBIhHU
If a third runway is built some areas will experience 13 hours of non-stop flying – a plane every 90 seconds. These will include places under the new flight path like Harlington and Brentford. It would also apply to places such as Richmond under the approach to the southern runway.
