On December 14th, the Department published its ‘Progress Report’ on its 2003 Aviation White Paper. It confirmed the expansionist plans of the White Paper.
The Progress Report confirmed that the Government was keen on going ahead with a 3rd runway at Heathrow and bring more planes in on the existing runways by getting rid of ‘runway alternation’ (the practice whereby planes coming in over West London currently switch runways at 3pm to give residents a break from the noise).
Consultation on plans to bring in more planes on the exiting runways will begin the Spring after the publication of the Project Heathrow, the Government’s study assessing future levels of pollution at the airport — there is the real possibility that further expansion will mean that air pollution levels at Heathrow exceed the EU legal limits. That study will also give us a clearer of the Government’s intensions over a 3rd runway and 6th terminal.
Expansion at Heathrow could lead to 720,000 flights a year using the airport, up from 473,000 last year. And it would smash the 480,000 cap imposed by the Government in 2001 when it gave Terminal 5 permission.
HACAN is gearing up for one of its biggest ever campaigns to oppose further expansion at Heathrow
Recent research by HACAN showed that flights could be cut at Heathrow without any damage being done to the economy — 100,000 flights a year are to/from destinations where there is already a good rail alternative. Read our report on the website.
Check out three important recent reports — all featured on our website (see links on the front page):
The Stern Review — where Sir Nicholas Stern, the chief economist at the Treasury, predicted that, unless the world starts spending money now to cut global emissions, climate change could send the world’s economy spiralling into disastrous recession. He called on travellers including those using aviation — the fastest-growing contributor to climate change — to be charged the full price of the costs they impose on the environment.
The Eddington Report — by former BA chief Rod Eddington. He was asked by Gordon Brown to asses the sort of transport infrastructure the UK economy would need over the next 30 years. He asked some searching questions on surface level transport, but, on aviation, more or less endorsed the Aviation White Paper.
Predict and Decide — an excellent report from Oxford University (in conjunction with TRL) which looks at the economic, environmental and social costs of aviation expansion. A goldmine of useful information.
There will be a lot of major aviation announcements in December
1.) 1st December: Eddington Report
2.) Week Beginning 4th December: Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) Study
3.) 6th December: Pre-Budget Statement
4.) 11th December: Offsetting -The DEFRA ‘Gold Standard’
5.) 14th December (probable date): ‘Progress Report’ on the Aviation White Paper
6.) During December: EU announcement on emissions trading
7.) During December: Office of Fair Trading’s decision on BAA monopoly
8.) During January: Project Heathrow Report on air pollution
9.) During January: Consultation on Runway Alternation
1.) 1st December: Eddington Report — last year Gordon Brown asked Rod Eddington, who had just stood down as the Chief Executive of BAA, to carry out a study examining the transport infrastructure the UK economy would over the next 30 years. Eddington has endorsed the view expressed in the Stern Report (the Treasury report published in November which argued that climate change could cost the world economy trillions unless we act now) that travellers should pay the full carbon cost of their journey. That, in principle, should mean air travellers paying higher costs, but Eddington is sceptical just how significant aviation’s contribution to global warming will actually be. He stressed how important he sees transport ‘gateways’ to a trading nation like Britain in a globalised world. He’s see Heathrow as a key ‘gateway’. He favours its expansion (including making more use off the existing runways by ending runway alternation).
2.) Week Beginning 4th December: Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) Study — this is a follow-up study, commissioned by the aviation industry, assessing the contribution of aviation to the economy. The original OEF study, published in 1999 by the Department for Transport by largely paid for by the aviation industry, was very controversial. It claimed that the aviation industry brought huge benefits to UK economy, but didn’t factor into its calculations the tax-breaks the aviation industry receives through tax-free fuel etc, nor the cost to the country of the environmental damage done by air travel. Despite these flaws at its heart, this was the study on which the 2003 Aviation White Paper was based.
3.) 6th December: Pre-Budget Statement — there are strong indications that the Gordon Brown is going to say that he will increase Air Passenger Duty in the Budget.
4.) 11th December: Offsetting -The DEFRA ‘Gold Standard’ – DEFRA (the Department for the Environment) commissioned work to try and establish a ‘gold standard’ for carbon off-setting, a standard which government departments will be expected to follow when off-setting their journeys. This work will be published on 11th December. There has been a lot of talk about ‘off-setting’ the carbon used in an air journey by giving money to something that will enhance the environment. But carbon-offsetting schemes have been controversial — some of the development charities and agencies have been particularly critical of them arguing that some of the schemes, such as random planting of trees in Africa, can be worse than useless. DEFRA is expected to endorse many of the criticisms made by the NGOs but is expected to endorse the principle of off-setting if the particular scheme is right.
5.) 14th December (probable date): ‘Progress Report’ on the Aviation White Paper — despite a lot of pressure for a fairly fundamental review of its Aviation White Paper, the Department for Transport has decided to go for a thin ‘progress report’. It is not expected to be more than 20 pages long. It will argue that the White Paper, with its predictions of a near-trebling of the number of passengers using UK airports by 2030, is still on-track. (What is will say is that the rise in oil prices, which the White Paper didn’t predict, will be off-set by a continuing fall in fares. It will assume that the tax-breaks enjoyed by the aviation industry will remain). It will endorse the findings of the Eddington Report, any rise in Air Passenger Duty announced by the Chancellor and the recommendations on off-setting announced by DEFRA. It will also endorse Emissions Trading as the way forward. It is unlikely to say much about individual airports. On Heathrow it will probably just say that Project Heathrow will report in the New Year and confirm there will be a consultation on runway alternation.
6.) During December: EU announcement on emissions trading — The European Commission has been working up its proposals for aviation to join the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. It is expected to come up with a scheme which will not be challenging to the industry. The scheme recommended earlier this month by the Environment Directorate would still see flight numbers increase by 135-139% by 2030 instead of 142% without an Emissions Trading Scheme. The recommended scheme will go in 2007 to the Parliament for discussion and the Council of Ministers for decision.
7.) During December: Office of Fair Trading’s decision on BAA monopoly — The OFF is expected to recommend that the Competition Commission investigate BAA’s ownership of 7 UK airports — Heathrow, Stansted, Gatwick, Southampton, Glasgow and Edinburgh. Although the Commission’s Inquiry would be expected to take two years, it could lead to the break-up of BAA/Ferrovial and, in the short-term, would create uncertainty for the company.
And in January:
8.) Project Heathrow Report on air pollution – the DfT is finalising its reassessment of air pollution levels around Heathrow if a 3rd runway were to be built and/or mixed mode was introduced.
9.) Consultation on Runway Alternation — it is becoming clear that this will be a more complex affair than the DfT originally envisaged. Since the DfT now seem to understand that the end of runway alternation would be hugely unpopular in West London, it is expected to widen the consultation to include Cranford Agreement, westerly preference, a 6th terminal and possibly something on the 3rd runway. We suspect the DfT, through the wider consultation, is hoping to identify ‘winners’ as well as ‘losers’ its consultation and thereby make the situation less black and white.