Major new aviation report argues “claims about the economic benefits of connectivity are not founded on solid evidence”

A major new report, launched today in the House of Commons, challenges the view that improved international air connectivity will necessarily bring significant benefits to the UK economy (1). The report by the independent Dutch consultants CE Delft, and commissioned jointly by WWF, RSPB and the Heathrow campaign group HACAN, argues that “claims about the economic benefits of connectivity are not founded on solid evidence.”

The report was launched at packed meeting hosted by Zac Goldsmith MP. The speakers included Jasper Faber from CE Delft, the main author of the report.

The report is timely. The Airports Commission, set up by the Government under Sir Howard Davies, has been charged with looking at whether the UK, and London and the South East in particular, requires additional airport capacity in order for the UK to maintain its first rate international links over the coming decades. At present it is actively “seeking evidence on aviation connectivity (2).

CE Delft concluded: “many studies find a positive correlation between aviation and economic growth, but no causal relationship between connectivity and economic growth was found”. Their analysis of the evidence shows that increasing connectivity is less beneficial for developed countries than for developing economies. They also found that extra connectivity in cities that are already well-connected, like London, does not necessarily deliver measurable or substantial economic benefits.

The report also challenges the way that the costs and benefits of airport expansion have traditionally been measured. It points out gaps in the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) which should “provide an overview of current and future pros and cons of a particular project for society as a whole (public, private sector and government) as objectively as possible.”It argues that the DfTA’s current Cost-Benefit Analysis method still omits key social or environmental costs, resulting in an overestimation of economic benefits.

This report also looks at some of the economic arguments being used by proponents of airport expansion and finds them to be miscalculated and exaggerated, distorting the aviation debate (3).

RSPB economist Adam Dutton said, “This report urges caution about automatically linking improved connectivity with economic performance. While some base level of connectivity is important for any economy, this report demonstrates that the benefits of extra connectivity in a city as well connected as London are doubtful and difficult to demonstrate with certainty”.

Jean Leston, head of transport policy at WWF, said, “The methods for assessing the benefits and costs of new runways and airports are hopelessly inadequate and open to gross manipulation. CE Delft has instilled a dose of reality into the airports debate. We hope that the Airports Commission and the Department for Transport will adopt the better SCBA methodology and require development proposals to do the same.”

HACAN Chair John Stewart said, “This report could not be more timely. It comes just as the Airports Commission is asking the hard questions about airport capacity and connectivity. And its message is clear: new runways may not be nearly as important for our economy as is commonly assumed.”


Notes to editors:

1. Copies of the report, Aviation Policy Development Framework, are available. The report

2. Airports Commission seeks evidence on aviation connectivity.

3. Economic arguments that were scrutinized include those by Frontier Economics, Oxford Economics, as well as the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), all were found to be faulty and misleading, based on an overestimation of economic benefits, false comparisons or selective use of data.

For more information:
John Stewart, Chair HACAN
Tel: 0207 737 6641; 07957385650 email: